Thursday, January 10, 2008

Infaltion expectation outside comfort zone

According to CB Consumer Confidence and and UMi Consumer Sentiment index inflation expectations increased in twelve month time. The Conference Board index increased from 4.7 to 5.7, the Consumer Confidence index moved higher from 3.0 to 3.4. While inflation expectations might not be "unmoored" yet the development is worrisome. Together with other inflation signals flaring red hot (gold close to $900, oil hit $100) Bernanke will have a hard time convincing his fellow board members to ease monetary policy further. The FEDs preferred measure for core inflation is between 1 and 2 percent and for headline inflation probably between 2 and 3 percent. Expectations are currently outside these comfort zones.

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