Friday, January 11, 2008

Infaltion expectations well anchored!?

According to FED governor Mishkin infaltion expectations appear to have remained "reasonably well anchored". There is nothing in the way of monetary policy to be "decisive and timely" in responding to a financial market disruption. If he is wrong the central bank should be prepared to hold steady or even raise the policy rate. Let's hope he is not wrong!!

....How can a central bank keep inflation expectations solidly anchored so it can respond preemptively to financial disruptions? The central bank has to have earned credibility with financial markets and the public through a record of previous actions to maintain low and stable inflation. Furthermore, the central bank needs to clearly indicate the rationale for its policy actions. Policymakers also need to monitor information about underlying inflation and longer-run inflation expectations, and if the evidence indicates that these inflation expectations have begun rising significantly, the central bank should be prepared to hold steady or even raise the policy rate.

...Of course, in making its decisions, the Federal Reserve also gives careful consideration to the outlook and risks associated with the second aspect of our dual mandate, namely, price stability. Because longer-run inflation expectations appear to have remained reasonably well anchored, in my view, the easing of the stance of policy in response to deteriorating financial conditions seems unlikely to have an adverse impact on the outlook for inflation.

No comments: