Friday, May 16, 2008

Is the crisis over? - experts speak out

Scholes, Nobel Laureate, Says Credit Crisis May Not Be Over.
"From my perspective, I think that we don't know if the storm has passed or if we are still in the eye of the storm. Are there other shoes to drop and new events or new shocks that will come to the fore?''

Ben S. Bernanke in a speech this week said financial markets remain "far from normal.''

Credit Suisse Group Chief Executive Officer Brady Dougan said markets are too optimistic that the credit crisis is nearing an end.
"I think that the markets are overly optimistic right now. There continue to be challenges and that's going to play out over the next six to eight weeks. There continue to be issues on the liquidity side.''

Describing housing as "the quintessential leading indicator", Rosenberg Merrill's North American economist, a long-time bear on the U.S. economy, said he expected home prices to fall another 15-20 percent before stabilizing. He also predicted inflation in the United States would slow as consumer spending weakens, and that the Federal Reserve would be forced to cut rates further to deal with the recession.
"No asset class security is priced today for a recession scenario, which is why he was bullish on U.S. Treasuries but bearish on stocks."

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday that financial markets are "considerably calmer" now than they were two months ago. He predicted the economy will be rebounding by the second half of this year.
"In my judgment, we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning. Looking forward, I expect that financial markets will be driven less by the recent turmoil and more by broader economic conditions and, specifically, by the recovery of the housing sector."

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