Friday, May 2, 2008

NFP declined by 20k in April 2008

A look at the numbers, with Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial, Mark Zandi, Moody'seconomy.com, Mike Darda, MKM Partners, Jack Bouroudjian, Brewer Investment Group, CNBC's Rick Santelli, Steve Liesman & Hampton Pearson.

Here are some of the candies:
Santelli: November Fed Funds are selling off, we are looking at a 20 percent chance of tightening many months down the road.
Zandi: This recession is a mild recession.
Liesman: Workweek actually fell, the diffusion is pretty low.
Darda: ....it could just be a very severe slowdown. Could this just be the first recession in history where we do not see one quarter of negative growth let alone two.
Swonk: ...its not the disastrous scenario that some people were suggesting.

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update: Fri May 2nd, 2 p.m.

The BLS diffusion index, which aims to capture the percentage of industries with increasing and decreasing employment, is slowly deteriorating. The three month average is down four month in a row. This is the first time since the 20o1 recession, which saw rather significant job losses. 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.

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here are a few more stats:
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video: April Jobs Report
CNBC
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/index.php?cl=7648092

source: Employment Situation of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

read also: Non Farm Payrolls down 80k in March
http://manonthestreet64.blogspot.com/2008/04/non-farm-payrolls-down-80k-in-march.html

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