Friday, May 2, 2008

NFP declined by 20k in April 2008

A look at the numbers, with Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial, Mark Zandi, Moody', Mike Darda, MKM Partners, Jack Bouroudjian, Brewer Investment Group, CNBC's Rick Santelli, Steve Liesman & Hampton Pearson.

Here are some of the candies:
Santelli: November Fed Funds are selling off, we are looking at a 20 percent chance of tightening many months down the road.
Zandi: This recession is a mild recession.
Liesman: Workweek actually fell, the diffusion is pretty low.
Darda: could just be a very severe slowdown. Could this just be the first recession in history where we do not see one quarter of negative growth let alone two.
Swonk: ...its not the disastrous scenario that some people were suggesting.

click for video

update: Fri May 2nd, 2 p.m.

The BLS diffusion index, which aims to capture the percentage of industries with increasing and decreasing employment, is slowly deteriorating. The three month average is down four month in a row. This is the first time since the 20o1 recession, which saw rather significant job losses. 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.

click to enlarge

here are a few more stats:
click to enlarge

video: April Jobs Report

source: Employment Situation of the Bureau of Labor Statistics

read also: Non Farm Payrolls down 80k in March

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