Friday, June 6, 2008

NFP down 49k in May 2008

Jobs Preview
Measuring the expectations, with Scott Nations, Fortress Trading; Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial; Mark Zandi,; CNBC's Steve Liesman & Rick Santelli

Liesman: Labor hording, as downturns happens employers are always reluctant to fire. The job market is relatively lousy.

Zandi: Final revisions will show that we probably lost lot more jobs than we think. Its probably not as bad as last recession.

Nations: If we get a decent number the Fed may raise rates sooner rather than later

interesting discussion between Santelli and former Fed official Bob McTeer about the fed and the ECB and yesterdays comments from JCT
click for video

Employees on nonfarm payrolls by detailed industry not seasonally adjusted:
Real estate credit and credit intermediation substantial job losses in March and April compared to last year (May data not available at this point). Overall financial activities gained about 20k jobs in May from last month. Commercial baking was flat in May from last moth.

Educational and health services are down 34k in May from alst month but up 566k from last year. Most of the gains were in health care, educational services shed 94k from last month but are up significantly from last year.

Government with slight increase in employment over the month.
State governments are down 104k in the month, with most of the losses in education.

Local governments created 109k!! new jobs, with about a third of the increase in education.
The increase in Local government jobs is surprising given the fiscal challenges that most local governments are facing in the current economic downturn.

The Diffusion index for private non farm payrolls over the last twelve month was at 47.8 in May. This is the first time since the 2001 recession that more companies are laying off than hiring workers over a twelve month time span. This reflects the marked increase in weekly continuing claims numbers. The index over 1,3 and 6 month time span is not at the trough levels of the last recession.

click to enlarge

more stats:

video: Jobs Preview


source: B-12. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by detailed industry

read also: NFP declined by 20k in April 2008
Friday, May 2, 2008

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