Thursday, July 3, 2008

NFP down 62k in June 2008

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down in June (-62,000), while the unemployment rate held at 5.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.

Employees on nonfarm payrolls by detailed industry not seasonally adjusted: (note that non seasonally adjusted data sometimes differ from the seasonally adjusted!)

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Service providing jobs holding up and stayed strong in the latest NFP report, despite a disappointing reading in employment of the ISM services index released today. According to form B12 (employees on nonfarm payrolls by detailed industry, NSA) service providing jobs increased to 116.7 million in June 08 from 116.1 million a year ago. Private service providing jobs jumped to 94.3 million vs 93.9 million over the same time period.

State and Local governments shed some jobs mostly on education, jobs outside of education held steady. Education jobs are expected to come back through hiring of new teachers at the beginning of next school year.

Slightly more employees were hired in the financial services industry compared this month compared to last month. Although about one hundred thousand jobs have been lost in this industry since June 2007 (to remember this is the month when two Bear Sterns HF launched the credit crisis).

Jobs in the architectural services industry held steady at 216k for the month of May (June 2008 is not available yet) vs 215k in April and 213k in April of last year. This is also somewhat surprising since there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the commercial real estate market. The architectural activity index has dipped lower but this is not yet reflected in the labor market.

Diffusion index:
The 3-month diffusion index was 41.6, the sixth month in a row for a reading below 50. In June 2008 about 59 percent of companies included in the NFP report were laying of workers and only 41 percent were hiring. This is indicative of a soft labor market, but it is also important to note that the index is not yet at the trough levels of about 30 reached during the 2001 recession.

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more stats:

read also: NFP down 49k in May
Friday, June 6, 2008


Bureau of Labor Statistics

source: B-12. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by detailed industry, NSA

Bureau of Labor Statistics

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